On the 15th of January, police agencies began fencing off large parts of downtown DC as they usually do for an Inauguration. In addition, large numbers of armed National Guard troops began showing up in the city. They are intended to protect Biden's Inauguration from armed Trump supporters and outright neo-Nazis, assuming they don't change sides themselves.

as of Jan 16, some areas close to the Mall are already behind bag search/metal detector checkpoints, and a larger area has it's perimeter fences up but gates open for public passage until the area is closed at a later time. Black Lives Matter Plaza is behind one of these open gates and is still occupied by anti-Trump protesters. The fence line at 16th st has been pushed from its 2017 location at H st all the way to partway across K st NW.

The use of fences and checkpoints began with the 2001 Inauguration of George W Bush, which was aggressively challenged by anti-globalization protesters. Those protesters however did not bring firearms and explosive devices, instead limiting themselves to helmets, shields, and the usual nonlethal Black Bloc hardware and tactics. The only projectiles used were tomatoes and eggs, launched from elevated positions at the US Navy Memorial. As shown in one edit of Michael Moore's Farenheit 911 movie, at least one of these scored a direct hit on Bush's limo . Bush's second Inauguration in 2005 feartured intense battles around the fences, with protesters around 14th st pulling down panels of the fence before being driven back under a blizzard of pepper spray. For Trump's 2017 Inauguration, protesters changed tactics, blockading checkpoints rather than storming them while a powerful Black Bloc kept the cops busy somewhere else.

This time around, Biden's Inauguration is being opposed by violent white supremacists, Nazis, and Trump supporters egged on by Donald Trump himself. Three prior appearances by these same forces have featured increasingly serious violence, culminating in the storming of the US Capitol on Jan 6. The fascist menace was so severe on Jan 6 that BLM and anti-Fascist fighters withdrew from an impossible overmatch, focussing instead on direct defense of BLM Plaza, neighborhoods, and unhoused people. Fascists did in fact take time off from storming the Capitol to assault unhoused DC residents, and attempted without success to muscle in on BLM Plaza.

This is not the kind of Inauguration where the new President's enemies smash down police checkpoints only to throw harmless pieces of fruit. Therefore Biden, Congressional Democrats, and non-MAGAt Republicans face an ugly choice: the Capitol Police and MPD showed on Jan 6 that they were incapable of halting the armed invasion of the US Capitol by Trump supporters. With militias already having called for more attacks on and around the Inauguration, it is clear that police by themselves cannot stop them. Thus, up to 30,000 fully armed National Guard troops are being deployed to defend the Inauguration. The US Government is placing its future in the hands of these soldiers.

The problem is this: on Jan 6, fascist 5th columnists inside the Capitol Police played a key role in opening doors and disabling defenses that could have put the fascists through a much tougher fight. Police agencies throughout the US are investigating members that fought on Jan 6 on the side of Trump's insurrection. Patches from many military units were also seen on many in the insurrection (not riot as it was preplanned) that stormed the US Capitol on Jan 6. Thus, there are serious questions about the loyalty of all those soldiers pouring into the city.

No doubt some of the National Guard and other troops are loyal to the US government/constitution and others are loyal to Trump. The fight will come down to how many are in each camp, and do enough outside Fascists enter the city to give the pro-Trump soldiers an excuse to act. If there are enough of them to cause the Army/National Guard to effectively change sides, the city falls to the Trumpers possibly for the duration of the resulting civil war. This would be similar to Julius Caesar's overthrow of the Roman Republic, replacing it with the Roman Empire. In this scenario, the US ceases to be any semblence of a democray, with an openly fascist dictatorship being boosted into power with Trump as dictator.This is NOT over yet.

If there are not enough disloyal troops to turn the overall military force into a coup army, even a few pro-Trump "green on blue" attackers could still create a real hornet's nest when combined with external attack. If the military as a whole stays loyal to the US government as normally constituted, the fascists face near-certain defeat on J20, but will probably regroup for four long years of terrorism and "lone wolf" attacks. For that matter Trump could install himself in one of his Florida compounds and claim "I am still your President." If he does this with militas backing him and even a single state government chooses to recognize "Florida instead of Washington," the US could split apart.

Since November the US has been entirely off the "map" of future political events drawn by its past, and the age of "American Exceptionalism" is over. A coup can happen here just as it can happen in Honduras. A civil war can happen here just as it did in Syria-and there is enough hate in the US that such a war here could indeed resemble what happened in Syria on a much larger scale. The future of a nation of 300 million is in the hands of at most three divisions of soldiers in the streets of Washington DC. How will they vote?

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